Iraq’s November Election: A Nation at a Crossroads Between Global Pressure and Public Hope

Iraq will head to the polls on November 11 for a pivotal parliamentary election, a moment analysts say will be closely watched by global powers — especially Iran, which is seeking to preserve influence after significant regional setbacks during the Gaza conflict and beyond.

Over the past two years, Iran-aligned groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Yemen’s Huthis have faced substantial losses. Iran itself endured unprecedented Israeli airstrikes in June, joined briefly by the United States, and also saw its geopolitical footing shaken with the fall of a major ally in Syria. Now, with shrinking leverage in the region, Tehran views Iraq as critical to maintaining strategic depth.

Since the 2003 US-led invasion, Iraq has often walked a tightrope between Washington and Tehran. Iran has traditionally relied on allied Shiite political parties and armed factions in Baghdad, helping shape leadership decisions including the rise of current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Yet observers say this influence is no longer guaranteed.

Iraqi analyst Ihsan al-Shammari notes that Iran’s power holds only as long as its partners remain central to decision-making. Meanwhile, American actions — from sanctions to deepened economic cooperation — suggest Washington is pushing firmly to limit Iranian sway.

But the biggest shift may be inside Iraq itself.

Public trust in elections has declined sharply. The 2021 vote saw cleric Moqtada Sadr’s bloc, once dominant, withdraw from parliament and now boycott the upcoming election, calling it unbalanced and driven by sectarian agendas. Participation, experts warn, could fall to its lowest level since democratic elections began in 2003.

Still, more than 21 million Iraqis remain eligible to elect 329 lawmakers, who will later determine the next president, parliament speaker, and prime minister — roles traditionally divided among Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni leaders. With more than 7,700 candidates, including a historic number of women, the election could reshape Iraq’s future — if citizens choose to engage.

For many Iraqis, the question is no longer which foreign power will hold influence — but whether their vote can still shape the nation they want to live in.

And in moments like these, nations are not only built by political forces or global agendas, but by the quiet determination of ordinary citizens who show up, speak up, and believe that change, no matter how slow, begins with them.

Because when people choose hope over fear, ballots over bitterness, and unity over division — history listens.