US may need years to rebuild missile stockpiles after Iran conflict, report warns
A new report has raised growing concerns about the United States military’s ability to quickly rebuild critical weapons stockpiles after the recent Iran conflict, warning that it could take several years before inventories return to safe levels.
According to an analysis released by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the US could need up to three years or more to replenish some of its most heavily used advanced weapons systems. These include Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot missile interceptors, and THAAD defence systems — all considered essential in modern warfare and national defence strategies.
The report highlights fears that reduced stockpiles may leave the United States vulnerable if another major conflict were to emerge, particularly in the Western Pacific region where tensions with China continue to grow.
CSIS stated that while the US military still maintains enough weapons for current operational needs, the depletion caused by the Iran war has created what experts describe as a “window of vulnerability.” Military planners are especially concerned about the possibility of future confrontations involving Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region.
China has repeatedly declared its ambition to strengthen military readiness regarding Taiwan by 2027. Although many analysts believe that timeline is more aspirational than fixed, recent remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping have intensified global concern. Xi warned that worsening relations between Washington and Taiwan could eventually trigger direct conflict between China and the United States.
The report also noted that the challenge is no longer simply about funding. Even with record defence budgets proposed under President Donald Trump’s administration, rebuilding inventories of advanced munitions cannot happen overnight.
“The issue today is not money. The issue is time,” the report explained. Expanding production capacity for highly sophisticated missile systems requires years of manufacturing development, supply chain coordination, and skilled labour.
Military experts say the current situation traces back decades to the period following the Cold War. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US shifted its military strategy toward shorter regional conflicts, reducing the need for massive stockpiles of high-end weapons. As a result, production orders slowed, and defence manufacturers scaled back their industrial capabilities.
However, global conflicts over the past few years — especially Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine and rising instability in the Middle East — have exposed the risks of limited ammunition reserves.
The CSIS report estimates that the US fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles during the Iran conflict alone. At the current production rate, replenishing those stockpiles could take until 2030.
Raytheon, the company responsible for manufacturing Tomahawk missiles, reportedly aims to significantly increase production in the coming years. Parent company RTX confirmed that billions of dollars are being invested into expanding production facilities in states such as Alabama and Arizona.
The report also estimates that replacing THAAD interceptor missiles used during Iranian drone and missile attacks may take until late 2029. Patriot missile inventories could take until mid-2029 to fully recover.
Lockheed Martin, which manufactures both THAAD and Patriot systems, said it is increasing production capacity through major investments across multiple US facilities. However, analysts warn that balancing America’s own military needs while continuing to support allies such as Ukraine will remain a difficult challenge.
Some defence analysts argue that the issue reflects years of underestimating the scale of modern warfare.
Virginia Burger, a senior defence policy analyst at the Project On Government Oversight and former Marine officer, questioned whether US leaders fully considered the consequences before entering the Iran conflict.
Meanwhile, Pentagon officials insist the US military remains fully prepared for any future threats. Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated that American forces continue to possess “a deep arsenal of capabilities” capable of protecting national interests around the world.
Despite concerns, the report does not paint an entirely negative picture. CSIS pointed out that recent operations against Iran, Venezuela, and Houthi forces in Yemen demonstrated the effectiveness and operational experience of the US military.
The think tank also noted that China lacks recent combat experience, which could continue acting as a deterrent while the United States works to restore its missile inventories and strengthen production capabilities.
As geopolitical tensions rise across multiple regions, the report serves as another reminder that modern warfare is not only fought on battlefields — it is also shaped by manufacturing speed, industrial strength, and long-term strategic planning.