Israel heads to polls amid divisions over Netanyahu and October 7 accountability

Israel is heading into a closely contested election, with voters weighing Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, national security, and the government’s response to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. The outcome could shape the country’s political direction, regional relations, and approach to accountability.

Israelis are preparing to cast their ballots in an election shaped by deep political divisions, years of regional conflict, and growing public debate over the country’s future. For many voters, the election represents an opportunity to assess the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving premier, and decide whether the country should continue on its current political path or move towards a different approach.

The vote comes nearly three years after the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which triggered a devastating period of conflict and left a lasting impact on Israeli society. National security, the government’s handling of the attack, and questions about who should be held accountable for the security failures have become central issues in the election campaign.

Beyond domestic concerns, Israel is also facing increasing international scrutiny over its military operations in Gaza, expanding settlements, and violence in the occupied West Bank. The country’s political direction, particularly the growing influence of right-wing and religious nationalist groups, has further intensified debate both inside Israel and abroad.

Netanyahu faces a serious political challenge

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 19 years across different periods, has built much of his campaign around his experience in security and international diplomacy. He has emphasised his relationship with US President Donald Trump and presented himself as the leader best equipped to protect Israel amid continuing regional instability.

During his time in office, Israel has been involved in multiple military confrontations across the region. Israeli forces have carried out extensive operations in Gaza, engaged in conflict involving southern Lebanon, and participated in military action against Iran with US involvement. Meanwhile, Israeli communities have faced attacks and bombardments linked to Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthi movement.

For Netanyahu’s supporters, his experience and willingness to take decisive action remain important reasons to back him. However, critics argue that experience alone is not enough to address the consequences of October 7 or restore confidence in the country’s political and security leadership.

Zipporah Bennett, an 85-year-old retiree interviewed by AFP, said she supported Netanyahu because of his experience navigating difficult periods for Israel. She also pointed to his backing from the American government and his willingness to act during times of crisis.

Her position reflects the concerns of voters who prioritise security, military strength, and continuity of leadership in an uncertain regional environment.

October 7 accountability becomes a defining election issue

One of the most significant challenges facing Netanyahu is the continuing demand for accountability over the October 7 attack, which became the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

Opposition figures have criticised the government for resisting calls to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the security and intelligence failures that preceded the attack. For many Israelis, determining how the attack occurred and why the country’s security systems failed remains essential to preventing a similar tragedy in the future.

Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and one of Netanyahu’s principal political rivals, has pledged to establish an independent investigation into those failures.

Eisenkot, 66, has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu, drawing on his military background while presenting a different leadership style. His campaign has sought to bring together political forces ranging from the right to the centre-left, united primarily by their opposition to the incumbent prime minister.

Although Eisenkot supports preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state and has expressed support for Israeli settlements, he has also promised action against violent settlers. His positions illustrate the complexity of Israel’s political landscape, where disagreements over leadership and accountability do not necessarily translate into agreement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Far-right influence and military service remain contentious

Netanyahu returned to power in December 2022 with a governing coalition that included far-right nationalist and ultra-Orthodox parties. Since then, these groups have played an increasingly influential role in shaping government policy.

One major source of disagreement concerns exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish religious students. Opposition parties have criticised the government’s support for maintaining these exemptions, particularly as the military faces personnel shortages following years of conflict.

The issue has become a wider debate about fairness, national responsibility, and the distribution of obligations among Israeli citizens. While some religious communities argue that full-time religious study is essential to their way of life, critics contend that military service requirements should be applied more equally.

These disagreements have added another layer of tension to an election already dominated by security concerns, political accountability, and the future influence of religious nationalism.

Millions of voters prepare to decide Israel’s direction

Approximately 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, including more than half a million young people expected to participate in an election for the first time. Surveys cited ahead of the vote indicated that many younger voters identified with centre-right or right-wing political positions.

Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad were also estimated to have travelled back to vote, reflecting the significance many citizens attach to the election.

For some voters, the ballot represents a chance to demand political change. Uriel Brandler, a 58-year-old real estate agent interviewed by AFP in Jerusalem before the election, described the vote as one of the most important in Israel’s history and said the country needed improvement across multiple areas.

Such views reflect a broader debate about the country’s direction after years of conflict, political uncertainty, and growing international criticism.

Arab political parties could influence coalition negotiations

Another important factor is the role of Arab political parties, which represent a population accounting for approximately 21 percent of Israel’s citizens.

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot had publicly committed to partnering with the predominantly Arab political lists ahead of the vote. However, if the election results prove as close as anticipated, these parties could influence the formation of the next government.

Israel’s parliamentary system makes coalition-building essential when no single party secures a majority. A party or alliance needs at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset to command a parliamentary majority.

Consequently, even a strong electoral performance by one political bloc may not be enough to guarantee that its leader becomes prime minister. Negotiations between parties, disagreements over policy, and competing demands for government positions can all determine the eventual outcome.

Most polling stations were scheduled to close at 10 p.m. local time, with final results potentially taking several days to emerge. Forming a government could take weeks or months, and the possibility of another election could arise if coalition negotiations fail.

An election with consequences beyond Israel

The election is taking place at a critical moment for Israel and the wider Middle East. The consequences of the October 7 attack, the war in Gaza, confrontations involving regional actors, and continuing disagreements over Palestinian statehood have created significant challenges for the country’s leadership.

The result will help determine whether Netanyahu retains the political support needed to continue governing or whether opposition forces can assemble a viable alternative.

However, the election is about more than a contest between two political figures. It also raises fundamental questions about national security, democratic accountability, military obligations, relations with minority communities, and the future direction of Israeli society.

For voters, the decision involves balancing competing priorities in a country still dealing with the consequences of prolonged conflict. For the region, the outcome could influence Israel’s domestic policies, diplomatic relationships, and approach to ongoing security challenges.

As the votes are counted and coalition discussions begin, Israel faces a difficult political transition in which the next government will have to confront not only immediate security concerns but also deeper questions about leadership, responsibility, and the country’s future.